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Prediction for CME (2024-05-07T03:12:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-05-07T03:12Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/30510/-1
CME Note: [IN REVIEW] This CME is faint but visible to the southeast in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and in STEREO A COR2 for a few frames prior to and following a data gap lasting from 2024-05-07T02:53Z-06:53Z. The source is likely an eruption near Active Region 13668 (S23E15) starting around 2024-05-07T00:50Z as seen in SDO AIA 131, 171, 193, 304 imagery. A large dimming area is seen in SDO AIA 193 at this time, which appears to move south of the eruption site. Additionally, rising loops are seen in SDO AIA 131 starting around 01:00Z and in SDO AIA 171/193 around 02:00Z. This CME likely combined with several other CMEs from 05-07 to 05-09, with the combined front of the CMEs arriving at L1 at 2024-05-10T16:36Z. The possible arrival is characterized by a sharp increase in magnetic field components with Btotal increasing to 45nT at 16:44Z. A subsequent increase in solar wind speed is observed from 462 km/s at 16:36Z to 703 km/s at 16:48Z. Increases in density and temperature are also observed. A possible flux rope signature begins around 2024-05-10T21:38Z which corresponds to a second, more intense amplification of magnetic field components with Btotal reaching a maximum of 73nT. Within this possible flux rope feature, which extends to 2024-05-11T09:30Z, there are three noticeable decreases in density which may correspond to three CMEs that may have merged into the signature. Because of this, it is possible the signature is associated with the arrival of CME: 2024-05-08T05:36Z, CME: 2024-05-08T12:24Z, and/or CME: 2024-05-08T19:12Z. CME: 2024-05-07T03:12Z and CME: 2024-05-07T05:24Z measured slowly and may have been overtaken by CME: 2024-05-08T05:36Z. Preliminary analysis of this arrival signature was provided by Carlos Perez Alanis from the LASSOS team at NASA GSFC.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-05-10T16:36Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-05-10T14:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 4.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/30530/1
Model Inputs:
2024-05-07T03:12:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-24.0, Lat.=-24.0, Speed=381.0, HalfAngle=35.0, Time21.5=2024-05-07T11:21Z
2024-05-07T05:24:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-2.0, Lat.=-32.0, Speed=430.0, HalfAngle=21.0, Time21.5=2024-05-07T12:02Z

Model Output:

Earth Impact:
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2024-05-10T14:00Z (+- 7 hours)
(kp)90=3
(kp)180=4

Other Location(s) Impact:
Lucy with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-05-13T02:00Z
STEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-05-10T06:00Z

Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240507_112100_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240507_112100_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240507_112100_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240507_112100_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240507_112100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240507_112100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240507_112100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240507_112100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240507_112100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Lucy_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240507_112100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240507_112100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240507_112100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240507_112100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240507_112100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif

Lead Time: 72.58 hour(s)
Difference: 2.60 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Mattie Anastopulos (M2M Office) on 2024-05-07T16:01Z

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